Introduction
I recently joined SUBSTACK, and due to breaking news in Iran, and Venezuela I never fully said who I was, so my readers, and paid subscribers might understand my unique point of view.
Being a professional SOF intelligence officer requires more than just knowledge and training; it demands a deep understanding of the nuances that set apart theoretical learning from practical, actionable intelligence in the field.
I want to explore the core disciplines of military and national security intelligence, the integral role of special operations forces, and the mindset required to excel in today’s complex geopolitical environment. Drawing from examples of historical intelligence successes and failures - to keep this discussion unclassified, yet useful.
What does it take?
Defining Military and National Security Intelligence
Military intelligence focuses on understanding and exploiting enemy capabilities, vulnerabilities, and intentions. It supports military operations by providing critical information that guides tactical and strategic decisions.
National security intelligence extends beyond the battlefield, encompassing a broad range of threats, including espionage, cyber warfare, terrorism, and geopolitical strategies by hostile nations.
Special Operations Forces: The Advanced Force
Special operations forces (SOF) often serve as the advanced force, acting as the eyes and ears of commanders. Their role involves conducting covert operations to gather critical intelligence before conventional forces are committed. For example, during Operation Neptune Spear, the mission to capture or kill Osama bin Laden, Navy SEALs operated as a highly specialized advanced force. Their actions were predicated on months of intelligence gathering, including signals intelligence (SIGINT) and human intelligence (HUMINT), which identified bin Laden’s location and ensured mission success.
The Importance of a Mindset of Will: Advanced Collection and Analysis
The mindset of a SOF intelligence officer must be characterized by an unrelenting will and a dedication to advanced collection and analysis. This involves anticipating enemy actions rather than merely predicting them—a subtle yet profound distinction.
Advanced collection refers to the proactive gathering of intelligence, often through very unconventional means, to provide a competitive edge. For example, in the early 2000s, advanced HUMINT & SIGINT capabilities allowed SOF operatives to intercept communications between al-Qaeda operatives, leading to the disruption of several planned attacks, these successes required Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) warrants, and at times a waiver of the use of active military forces of the United States, known as “posse comitatus” when the target was a jihadist veiled and hiding behind a dual US citizenship, operating in a foreign country.
Advanced analysis is the process of transforming raw intelligence into actionable insights. A critical example of this is the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, where U.S. reconnaissance photographs revealed Soviet missile installations in Cuba.
The advanced analysis of these images, coupled with Human Intelligence (HUMINT) from Cuban defectors, allowed President Kennedy to accurately assess the threat and respond with a naval blockade that ultimately led to the de-escalation of the crisis.
Concrete Examples of Intelligence Practices and Lessons Learned
Challenging Conventional Wisdom: SOF Intelligence officers must consistently question established beliefs and resist the temptation to follow the crowd. The 2003 Iraq Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) debacle is a stark reminder of the dangers of groupthink and confirmation bias in intelligence assessments.
Despite conflicting evidence, due to White House “cherry picking” intelligence, and inserting it to influence the content of the President’s Daily Brief (PDB), this led the President to the false belief in the presence of WMDs, which led to further confirmation bias, & flawed intelligence that shaped U.S. foreign policy. This example underscores the need for critical thinking and unbiased analysis to avoid strategic miscalculations.
Advanced Collection and Anticipation: During the Tet Offensive in 1968, U.S. forces were caught by surprise despite numerous intelligence indicators. This failure to anticipate the coordinated assault by North Vietnamese forces highlighted gaps in intelligence collection and analysis. In contrast, successful advanced collection was demonstrated in the lead-up to the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan. The intelligence community meticulously pieced together disparate pieces of HUMINT and Signals Intelligence (SIGINT) over several years, demonstrating the power of advanced collection and patient analysis.
Practical Application of Advanced Analysis: The downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 in 2014 by a surface-to-air missile in Ukraine is a case study in advanced analysis. The intelligence community quickly gathered satellite images, intercepted communications, and open-source intelligence (OSINT) to determine that Russian-backed separatists were responsible. This rapid and thorough analysis allowed Western governments to respond with sanctions and diplomatic pressure against Russia.
Historical Context and Strategic Surprise: SOF Intelligence officers must always remain vigilant against strategic surprises. History offers many lessons, from Pearl Harbor in 1941 to the surprise attack on U.S. forces at Khe Sanh during the Vietnam War. The failure to anticipate China’s entry into the Korean War in 1950 is another example where misjudgments and lack of adequate intelligence led to disastrous outcomes. Conversely, the prediction and preemptive action during the 1967 Six-Day War allowed Israel to disable its adversaries’ air capabilities before a full-scale invasion.
Advice for Aspiring SOF Intelligence Professionals
1. Develop Critical Thinking Skills: SOF Intelligence officers must go beyond rote memorization of tradecraft techniques and develop an in-depth understanding of critical thinking. This includes challenging biases, testing assumptions, and exploring alternative scenarios. Incorporating structured analytic techniques, such as red-teaming and scenario planning, can help mitigate the risk of cognitive biases. Just because an agency marked and issued you a document ‘TOP SECRET,’ does not make the content TRUE. Question all information logically, challenge group think. Ask yourself “are we being deceived?”
2. Master the Art of Anticipation: Unlike prediction, which seeks to forecast specific outcomes, anticipation involves preparing for a range of possibilities. This approach is crucial in intelligence work, where the enemy’s intentions are often concealed. For instance, during the Cold War, U.S. intelligence employed various methods, such as the “Team B” exercises, to anticipate Soviet military strategies and capabilities, providing a broader view of potential threats. No Operations Plan survives the first day of actual combat, without changing. Anticipate that the enemy also gets a vote.
3. Embrace a Multidisciplinary Approach: Modern SOF intelligence officers must be proficient in a variety of disciplines, including languages, cybersecurity, data analytics, and cultural intelligence (religious, ethnicity, tribal). The increasing complexity of global threats, such as cyber attacks by state actors like North Korea, requires SOF intelligence officers to be adaptable and continually update their skills. The recent cyber intrusion into the U.S. federal government’s networks, attributed to Russian actors, highlighted the need for advanced cyber intelligence capabilities and cross-disciplinary expertise, coupled with an immediate counter response and US Cyber attack.
4. Stay Ahead of Technological Advances: As the world evolves, so too must SOF intelligence tradecraft. The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning into intelligence analysis is transforming how data is processed and interpreted at a billion rules per second. SOF Intelligence officers should familiarize themselves with these technologies; especially Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), to enhance their ability to analyze large datasets and extract actionable insights in real-time to support the commander.
Conclusion
The role of a SOF intelligence officer is both demanding and critical to national security. By mastering advanced collection and analysis, embracing a mindset of anticipation, and continuously challenging conventional wisdom, SOF intelligence professionals can provide the strategic insights needed to navigate the complexities of modern geopolitics.
In a world where the boundaries between war and peace are increasingly blurred, the effectiveness of intelligence work will continue to be defined by the quality of the specially selected officers who graduate from the Assessment and Selection Course gauntlet, and go on to master the Core Training Course (CTC) behind it. Then deploy into a world of three way mirrors, where mission tempo is unrelenting, and their success hinges on your ability to anticipate, adapt, and act decisively in the face of ever-evolving threats.
“Always, Speak Truth to Power!”
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ANNEX A: ISOLATION FOR DEEP THINK - SOF Intelligence Operation & the Deliberate Planning Process
The SOF deliberate planning process prepares for possible contingencies by using the best available information. It becomes the basis for the proposed joint operation plans, & contingencies to be coordinated with the team, rehearsed, refined, coordinated with units attached in direct, and general support of the mission, and presented to the command group for mission approval.
Steps in the process include:
Mission analysis
Situation analysis
Course of action (COA) development
COA analysis and wargaming
COA comparison and approval
Plan or order development
Any national mission requires technical, and tactical skill proficiency at the expert level, bravery and resiliency, as well as a deep understanding of the principles and tactics we’ll employ.
Success hinges on every team member mastering these concepts:
1. The Six Principles of Special Operations Missions
First and foremost, we operate by six key principles: Simplicity, Security, Repetition, Surprise, Speed, and Purpose. Each one of these principles will guide our actions and decisions.
Simplicity: Keep your plans and actions straightforward. Complicated plans are prone to failure. We need clear, concise objectives and actions.
Security: Always ensure our plans and movements are secure. Avoid unnecessary risks that could compromise our mission.
Repetition: Practice and drill the tasks until they become second nature. Repeated actions ensure proficiency and confidence.
Surprise: Our enemy’s greatest fear is the unknown. Strike when and where they least expect it.
Speed: Move quickly and decisively. Our advantage lies in our ability to act faster than our adversary.
Purpose: Every action must have a clear purpose. Know why you’re doing what you’re doing and how it contributes to the mission.
Advanced Analysis and Critical Thinking
We start with advanced analysis, which requires rigorous critical thinking. This isn’t just about reacting to events; it’s about anticipating them.
Advanced Analysis: We will conduct a deep dive into the target area and the human target. Analyze their history, behavior, and any other relevant data. This will guide our approach, whether we are recruiting an informant or executing a kinetic mission.
Critical Thinking: Approach every piece of information with a questioning mind. Consider what it implies, its broader context, and the logical consequences. This will help us fill in the intelligence gaps and refine our plans.
The Twelve Elements of Advanced Collection
Advanced collection involves more than just gathering information. It’s about using every available asset and method efficiently.
Advanced Collection Philosophy: Understand the principles behind our collection strategies.
Collection Planning, Wargaming, and Red Teaming: Plan meticulously, simulate potential scenarios, and test our strategies against adversary tactics.
Low-Level Human Collectors and Point Persistent Surveillance: Use our human assets on the ground and maintain constant surveillance.
Concealed MASINT Devices and High-Resolution Optics: Employ hidden sensors and high-quality optics for detailed observation.
Collection Architectures and Adversary Counter-Surveillance: Design effective collection systems while anticipating and countering enemy surveillance efforts.
Optimum Mixes of Collectors and Collection Synergy: Combine our resources and efforts to maximize effectiveness.
Data as a Collection Asset
Smart Data Software: Use advanced software to scrape and analyze data from the internet, infiltrate databases, and gather intelligence without detection.
Intelligent Agents: Deploy agents to access decision-making processes and digital flows.
Surrogate Travel in Virtual Reality: Utilize VR to visualize and understand the target environment as if we were physically present.
The Hive Mind and Unity of Effort. Success in this mission will rely on our ability to work together efficiently. Think of our combined efforts as a collective intelligence that can solve complex problems. Each one of you, your skills, and your contributions are part of this unified effort harmonize all our actions towards a common objective. Avoid duplication of efforts and work seamlessly with others.
Access, Data, Sensors, Knowledge Architectures: Ensure we have the right access, gather relevant data, use appropriate sensors, and build effective knowledge systems.
Advanced Collection Condition Setting
Before we execute our plan, we need to set conditions:
Access, Data, Sensors, Knowledge Architectures: Ensure we have the right access, gather relevant data, use appropriate sensors, and build effective knowledge systems.
Anticipate Adversary Actions
Always be one step ahead:
Adversary Counter-Surveillance: Predict how the enemy will attempt to thwart our efforts and use deception to our advantage.
The OODA Loop
Finally, we will use the OODA loop:
Observe, Orient, Decide, Act (OODA): Continuously assess the situation, adapt to changes, and act decisively. Enhance this with anticipating and wargaming potential adversary reactions.
Expectations
Diligence: Each of you must diligently apply these principles and strategies.
Adaptability: Be ready to adjust tactics based on real-time feedback and developments.
Collaboration: Work closely with your team members, share information, and support one another.
Initiative: Don’t wait for instructions. Take proactive steps and make informed decisions.
The mission will always demand the highest level of preparation, understanding, and execution. Each team member brings with him his unique skill set, that becomes part of the collective HIVE MIND enabling the team to stay focused, stay sharp, and execute with precision.
In war, Victory is never guaranteed, but by adherence to these core principles, in respectful collaboration, mission accomplishment is possible due to the preparedness, cohesive construct of the SOF Team.
This is the depth, and breadth of practical past experience I will bring to my special addition to my Substack, known as “The Tradecraft Circle,” where each week my paid subscribers will be exposed to a specific in depth understanding of breaking news from my unique point of view. National Security Matters to everyone.
I hope you will join us there!