National Security, Counter Terrorism, Cyber Security, and Multi-Media Entertainment Professional
January 26, 2026
Endorsed By: Ken Robinson
Brian Michael Jenkins has spent more than five decades doing what too few analysts do well: treating terrorism as strategy, not theater. In “Feature Commentary: Red Teaming Hamas’ Options,” Jenkins applies disciplined red teaming to a problem space that punishes mirror-imaging and rewards complacency. The result is a sober, decision-relevant framework for thinking about Hamas after the ceasefire, the peace plan, and the next phase of the war.
Jenkins does not romanticize the adversary and he does not indulge in prediction-as-performance. He does something far more valuable. He forces the reader to inhabit Hamas’ incentives, constraints, and internal politics, then maps three plausible pathways: confrontation, a more peaceful hudna posture, and a flexible, opportunistic approach. That triad is not an academic exercise. It is a practical tool for policy makers, military planners, intelligence professionals, and serious journalists who need to anticipate surprises, test assumptions, and build contingencies that survive contact with reality.
What makes this piece essential is its insistence that Hamas’ calculus is not reducible to conventional military balance. Jenkins highlights the interplay of survival imperatives, intra-Palestinian competition, the gun as political currency in Gaza, and the strategic use of violence and ambiguity to shape external actors, including any International Stabilization Force. He also reminds us that deterrence logic often breaks on the rocks of ideology, factionalism, and perceived divine mandate - and that “not losing” is frequently treated as “winning.”
As someone who has lived inside operational planning and intelligence tradecraft, I read this as a model of analytic hygiene. It is clear-eyed, historically grounded, and written with the humility that complex adversaries demand. If you are trying to understand where Hamas could go next, and more importantly how we should think about what we do not know, start here.
Read it, share it, and use it as a prompt for your own red team work. That is the point, and Jenkins delivers.
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Ken Robinson